[ET Net News Agency, 14 July 2026] The US and Iran have officially torn up the previously signed memorandum of understanding, resuming their mutual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose while gold prices fell in response. Asian equities fluctuated in early trading before confirming a downward trend during the session, and the Hong Kong stock market performed equally softly. The HSI fell by over 300 points at one stage to pierce the 24,000 mark, hitting a low of 23,902. After shaking out a small number of bull contracts, the index rebounded, closing the half-day session at 24,099, down 113 points or 0.5%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 8,031, down 34 points or 0.4%. The Hang Seng Tech Index stood at 4,609, down 66 points or 1.4%. Southbound capital recorded a half-day net inflow of nearly HKD 5 billion, with mainboard turnover reaching nearly HKD 162 billion.
"Nip Chun Pong: Two conditions required for Hong Kong stocks to seek another breakthrough"
The situation in the Middle East has taken a sharp turn for the worse, causing Hong Kong stocks to pull back significantly during early trading. The decline expanded to over 200 points at one point, losing the 24,000 psychological barrier again after three days. However, support emerged at the low levels, leading to a noticeable narrowing of losses and even a temporary intraday reversal. Unfortunately, it lacked follow-through momentum, and the index slipped back to battle around the 24,000 mark. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief Strategist at Solo Securities, told ET Net News Agency that the recent escalation of the US-Iran conflict is essentially more about accumulating bargaining chips for negotiations. From observations, the impact of the war on global stock markets is relatively limited, and a pattern of "fighting while talking" is expected to be maintained in the short term. Following the significant rise at the beginning of the month, a minor correction for Hong Kong stocks at the current stage is normal. It is anticipated that the market will challenge the resistance level of 24,500 points again this week, but whether it can successfully break through depends on the trend of heavy-weight tech stocks and the "troika" economic data of Mainland China to be announced tomorrow (15 July). He added that the market forecasts that social retail sales data will still show a contraction. If the actual retail data turns out to be positive, it is expected to bring a boosting effect; if it merely meets market expectations, it will exert pressure on Hong Kong stocks, with the downside support level expected at 23,800 points.
Following the brewing of the war news, rate hike expectations have intensified, with traders estimating the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month at around 50%. Nip Chun Pong believes that the chance of a rate hike this month is relatively low; instead, attention should be paid to the probability of a hike in September. According to current market predictions, the probability of a rate hike in September is close to 60%, with even the possibility of a half-percentage-point hike, but specific rate hike forecasts will depend on future inflation data.
The sharp deterioration of the international geopolitical situation has stimulated a surge in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures returning to the USD 85 level. Nip Chun Pong stated that Brent crude might challenge the USD 90 high during intraday trading this week, but it would be difficult to close at the USD 90 level; closing at USD 88 would already be a higher level, while there is support at USD 80 below. With rate hike expectations rising, gold prices came under pressure, and spot gold fell back below USD 4,000 per ounce. Nip Chun Pong likewise believes that it is normal for the gold price to pierce below the USD 4,000 mark intraday, but the probability of closing below USD 4,000 is not high unless rate hike anxieties continue to escalate. The short-term closing price of gold is expected to lie between USD 4,000 and USD 4,050.
"Continuous weakness in semiconductor shares will drag down AI medicine stocks"
Insilico (03696) has recently encountered a concentration of positive news. The company previously expected its revenue and profit for the first half of this year to turn from a loss into a profit, with revenue reaching approximately USD 102.5 million to USD 106.5 million (equivalent to approximately HKD 800 million to HKD 830 million), representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 272.7% to 287.3%. Net profit is expected to be approximately USD 33.5 million to USD 39.5 million (equivalent to approximately HKD 260 million to HKD 300 million), compared to a net loss of USD 19.2 million (equivalent to approximately HKD 150 million) recorded in the same period last year. Yesterday (13 July), Insilico further announced that it has reached a strategic cooperation with China Medical System (00867) in the field of central nervous system drug research and development. The company is expected to receive milestone payments of up to approximately RMB 1.2 billion in total, as well as net sales royalties.
Nip Chun Pong stated that Insilico shares the same business attributes as its peer XtalPi (02228), as both develop pharmaceutical businesses based on AI technology. Their share price movements also frequently show a positive correlation, with the difference lying in the rhythm of rotation: XtalPi initiated its upward trend in late June and did not enter a consolidation phase until 6 July; by contrast, the upward rhythm of Insilico has been more pronounced over the past few trading days, belonging to a "catch-up rotation" rally, and a cyclical lag exists between the two. However, he reminded that if global semiconductor stocks continue to weaken, it will drag down the overall AI industry, making it difficult for both Insilico and XtalPi to remain unaffected in the short term.
Speaking of Insilico's short-term trend, Nip Chun Pong stated bluntly that the stock had suffered long-term losses in the past. Even under the most optimistic estimate, it would only have a chance to turn around its full-year performance this year. After all, it recorded a full-year loss of over HKD 350 million last year, making a one-off turnaround rather difficult, though fortunately, the prospects of the AI medicine sector remain attractive. From a technical perspective, after surging by over 7% on the single day of its positive profit alert, Insilico's rally stalled and trading turned quiet over the subsequent one or two trading days. Unless it can firmly hold at HKD 48, it is difficult to express optimism, and the subsequent market trend is highly likely to maintain a sideways movement within the HKD 42 to HKD 48 range.
"Nip Chun Pong: Two conditions required for Hong Kong stocks to seek another breakthrough"
The situation in the Middle East has taken a sharp turn for the worse, causing Hong Kong stocks to pull back significantly during early trading. The decline expanded to over 200 points at one point, losing the 24,000 psychological barrier again after three days. However, support emerged at the low levels, leading to a noticeable narrowing of losses and even a temporary intraday reversal. Unfortunately, it lacked follow-through momentum, and the index slipped back to battle around the 24,000 mark. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief Strategist at Solo Securities, told ET Net News Agency that the recent escalation of the US-Iran conflict is essentially more about accumulating bargaining chips for negotiations. From observations, the impact of the war on global stock markets is relatively limited, and a pattern of "fighting while talking" is expected to be maintained in the short term. Following the significant rise at the beginning of the month, a minor correction for Hong Kong stocks at the current stage is normal. It is anticipated that the market will challenge the resistance level of 24,500 points again this week, but whether it can successfully break through depends on the trend of heavy-weight tech stocks and the "troika" economic data of Mainland China to be announced tomorrow (15 July). He added that the market forecasts that social retail sales data will still show a contraction. If the actual retail data turns out to be positive, it is expected to bring a boosting effect; if it merely meets market expectations, it will exert pressure on Hong Kong stocks, with the downside support level expected at 23,800 points.
Following the brewing of the war news, rate hike expectations have intensified, with traders estimating the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month at around 50%. Nip Chun Pong believes that the chance of a rate hike this month is relatively low; instead, attention should be paid to the probability of a hike in September. According to current market predictions, the probability of a rate hike in September is close to 60%, with even the possibility of a half-percentage-point hike, but specific rate hike forecasts will depend on future inflation data.
The sharp deterioration of the international geopolitical situation has stimulated a surge in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures returning to the USD 85 level. Nip Chun Pong stated that Brent crude might challenge the USD 90 high during intraday trading this week, but it would be difficult to close at the USD 90 level; closing at USD 88 would already be a higher level, while there is support at USD 80 below. With rate hike expectations rising, gold prices came under pressure, and spot gold fell back below USD 4,000 per ounce. Nip Chun Pong likewise believes that it is normal for the gold price to pierce below the USD 4,000 mark intraday, but the probability of closing below USD 4,000 is not high unless rate hike anxieties continue to escalate. The short-term closing price of gold is expected to lie between USD 4,000 and USD 4,050.
"Continuous weakness in semiconductor shares will drag down AI medicine stocks"
Insilico (03696) has recently encountered a concentration of positive news. The company previously expected its revenue and profit for the first half of this year to turn from a loss into a profit, with revenue reaching approximately USD 102.5 million to USD 106.5 million (equivalent to approximately HKD 800 million to HKD 830 million), representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 272.7% to 287.3%. Net profit is expected to be approximately USD 33.5 million to USD 39.5 million (equivalent to approximately HKD 260 million to HKD 300 million), compared to a net loss of USD 19.2 million (equivalent to approximately HKD 150 million) recorded in the same period last year. Yesterday (13 July), Insilico further announced that it has reached a strategic cooperation with China Medical System (00867) in the field of central nervous system drug research and development. The company is expected to receive milestone payments of up to approximately RMB 1.2 billion in total, as well as net sales royalties.
Nip Chun Pong stated that Insilico shares the same business attributes as its peer XtalPi (02228), as both develop pharmaceutical businesses based on AI technology. Their share price movements also frequently show a positive correlation, with the difference lying in the rhythm of rotation: XtalPi initiated its upward trend in late June and did not enter a consolidation phase until 6 July; by contrast, the upward rhythm of Insilico has been more pronounced over the past few trading days, belonging to a "catch-up rotation" rally, and a cyclical lag exists between the two. However, he reminded that if global semiconductor stocks continue to weaken, it will drag down the overall AI industry, making it difficult for both Insilico and XtalPi to remain unaffected in the short term.
Speaking of Insilico's short-term trend, Nip Chun Pong stated bluntly that the stock had suffered long-term losses in the past. Even under the most optimistic estimate, it would only have a chance to turn around its full-year performance this year. After all, it recorded a full-year loss of over HKD 350 million last year, making a one-off turnaround rather difficult, though fortunately, the prospects of the AI medicine sector remain attractive. From a technical perspective, after surging by over 7% on the single day of its positive profit alert, Insilico's rally stalled and trading turned quiet over the subsequent one or two trading days. Unless it can firmly hold at HKD 48, it is difficult to express optimism, and the subsequent market trend is highly likely to maintain a sideways movement within the HKD 42 to HKD 48 range.
