2023-03-17

Bank Bank BANG

　　歐美的銀行危機，爆如一聲雷，後續如何？

　　1. 我問過ChatGPT，矽谷銀行（SVB）事會點發展，How does SVB incident affect US Treasury Yield？其答如下：

　　The collapse of Silicon Valley Bancshares (SVB) could potentially have an impact on US Treasury yields, although the precise effect would depend on a variety of factors.

　　One possible effect is that a collapse of SVB could lead to increased uncertainty and risk aversion in the financial markets. This could cause investors to seek out safe-haven assets, such as US Treasury bonds, which could drive up demand for these securities and push their yields lower.

　　On the other hand, if the collapse of SVB were to lead to broader financial instability or a loss of confidence in the US financial system, it could cause investors to demand higher yields to compensate for the increased risk. This could result in higher US Treasury yields.

　　Overall, the impact of a collapse of SVB on US Treasury yields would depend on a variety of factors, including the severity of the collapse, the response of regulatory bodies and other financial institutions, and broader economic and market conditions at the time.

　　無料到？必然。因為個腦的資料是截至2021年的，真正發展為何？

（istock）

　　2. 美國監管當局FDIC（Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.）圖快刀斬亂麻，把矽谷銀行快快賣出。一如英國的矽谷分行，由匯豐(00005)買了，英國當局就放下心頭大石，因為之後的問題是滙豐的。但美國矽谷銀行就不一樣了。

　　上周六（11日），第一次拍賣，賣不出（圖一），只好又賣第二次。奇怪的，是FDIC阻止了第一次拍賣的買家去接手矽谷銀行（圖二），似乎美政府對矽谷銀行能賣予哪些人，是有對象了，不是你有錢就可買。美政府不急甩手燙手山芋，為何？這可以是個政治決定，但未成事前，不多說。

　　3. 昨日3月16日，美國踏入了個禁止公司回購期，圖三詳列了個發展途徑。由3月16日至3月26日，有約40%的美上市公司進入個禁止公司回購期，估計要到4月28日才止。此即在這段期間，美股將少了公司回購這枝大水喉，美股如有下調壓力，是可以……

　　花旗的Matt King如是估：

　　「Spring optimism was notably greater in markets than in the real economy and was founded on a $1tn injection of liquidity by central banks, which seems already to be reversing. With investors now being reminded of the risks associated with deposits, money markets and RRP look more alluring than ever. Additional rate hikes will make them only more so. Add in the collapse in money growth and declining productivity, and talk of higher r* seems premature. As they say in Japan, the blossoms of spring are all the more precious because they bloom so briefly。」　(CITI)

　　譯過來：春花璀璨，惜短暫。

　　夠短嗎！

通脹仍未壓下　加息仍會繼續

　　4. 危機一起，錢走去邊？巴克萊銀行衍生工具部出了個圖，他們將美國2年期國債、金、日圓的波動全併在一張圖內，找到這些資產的3天平均價達到三個標準差，是自1976年，是，是自1976年來最高的（圖四），留意1979年是伏爾克的大加息期，這個指標是近-15%，跟今時走向南轅北轍。為甚麼？遲些才分析。