2022-10-19
升途崎嶇
港股升下跌下,昨日(18日)恒指以升301.68點收,期指以升312點收,惟成交仍是997.56億,不足千億。弱成交上升,升途必然崎嶇。
(iStock)
有投資者認為港股近日之升有3個因素刺激:
1)英鎊回升,為環球的退休基金、保險基金、社保基金減輕了沽貨壓力,這點在今周一本欄已解釋過。
2)日本擬將個人投資者的稅收優惠制度「NISA」永久化,你知唔知係乜?唔知,益極我們這些小戶有限。
3)話中資行沽美元托人仔。
上述三項所謂利好,利好極有限,未可以帶動美股升逾五百多點,所以要再找其他因素。
一個因素是華爾街大淡友轉看好(圖一),謂標普500可升上4150.這不為奇,在熊市中,反彈10%至20%是可以的,關鍵是升到4150後,能否企穩並再上。今時不好說,只能走著瞧。
當多淡鱷看淡,淡友太多,人人都沽了後,或大部分人都沽了後,大市唯一的走向就是升。圖二說明這個。
當認沽期權是歷史性地3倍多於認購期權時,就是個市側埋一邊,定會反轉。而在美股裏,亦見出沽與買盤是5:1,側得這麼重,淡友遲早會被噬,結果:
圖三:納指開市前已升,一條氣升到尾;
圖四:被沽得最狠的股票指數,坐直升機升回來;
圖五:股升,還要債息跌;
圖六:連帶之下,連比特幣也不再弊。
挾淡倉能否挾回隻牛回來?
標普RSI背馳看反彈
過去12個交易日,美股的急升急跌,原來標普500都跳不出3700與3600間的區間(圖七)。但技術指標上,則見到RSI是有個背馳,理論上,是喘定之兆,後市可望彈升些少。
這個多些少,是幾多幾少?
聽Mike Wilson的:
Wilson is also on the "bounce train"
Mike Wilson thinks inflation has peaked and could fall rapidly next year as comps get tougher and consumer discounting ramps up. Prior earnings recessions have taken 15 months to play out. While it feels like this downward EPS revision cycle has been in process for a long time, we're only about 3 months in from the early July peak in numbers. We've seen the market multiple discount the earnings downside somewhere between ~40-50% of the way through the EPS compression. All in all, history points to the next 3-4 months as the window to fully discount the earnings recession. He sees this as short term supportive for stocks, until we hit earnings revisions/a full blown recession, and expects a short-term rally in US markets. (Morgan Stanley)
簡譯過來是:
(1)是時候彈下;
(2)之後要消化公司盈利減的現實,以往歷史是要用15個月左右至消化完這個利淡消息,故未來三/四個月,還要下跌下。
因此,升途應不長,三/四個月之後始有可觀之處。為何是三/四個月?今時是業績公布期,公司公布的業績如差,市場會等三個月之後的業績公布來確認盈利減縮周期是否已完結。若完結了,股市就有實力地升,而不是被挾升。美股如是,港股亦如是。
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